The Sun

[HBS Guy]

spaceweather.com:

Solar wind
speed: 479.3 km/sec
density: 0.95 protons/cm3

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C2 0629 UT Aug23
24-hr: M1 1859 UT Aug22

Sunspot number: 51

BRIGHT FARSIDE CME: On Aug. 21st, a fast-moving CME blew away from the farside of the sun, forming a complete halo around the solar disk. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) recorded the explosion:

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Radio emissions from shock waves inside the CME suggest it was moving at 1,200 km/s (2.7 million mph)--very fast, but not record-setting. If it hit Earth, it would almost certainly spark a strong geomagnetic storm.

However, it will not hit Earth. Instead, a NASA model predicts it will strike Mars on Aug. 25th, potentially sparking global UV auroras around the Red Planet.

The source of the CME is not completely hidden. Hemioseismic maps of the sun's farside reveal the echo of a large sunspot at the probable location of the blast site:



This farside sunspot is not far behind the sun's eastern limb and, indeed, only few days away from turning to face Earth. The next CME might hit us instead of Mars. Stay tuned!

 

[HBS Guy]

spaceweather:

Solar wind
speed: 398.9 km/sec
density: 3.28 protons/cm3

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M1 0836 UT Aug24
24-hr: M1 2006 UT Aug23

Sunspot number: 87

FARSIDE SUNSPOTS ARE COMING: Helioseimic maps of the sun's farside reveal two sunspot groups lurking just behind the sun's eastern limb. They'll turn to face Earth in a few days, potentially bringing stormy space weather. Both of these active regions have been hurling significant CMEs into space. If their activity continues apace, we'll soon be in the line of fire.

 

[HBS Guy]

spaceweather.com:

Solar wind
speed: 403.9 km/sec
density: 4.09 protons/cm3

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M4 0524 UT Aug25
24-hr: M4 0524 UT Aug25

Sunspot number: 102

 

[HBS Guy]

spaceweather.com:

Solar wind
speed: 415.6 km/sec
density: 4.66 protons/cm3

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M4 0525 UT Aug26
24-hr: M4 0525 UT Aug26

Sunspot number: 136

EARTH IS ALMOST IN THE STRIKE ZONE: A phalanx of large sunspots is turning toward Earth. Sunspot 4199 is crackling with M-class flares, while big sunspot 4197 has a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for even stronger X-flares. Earth is almost in the strike zone of these active regions, and we will be squarely bulls-eyed later this week.

 

[HBS Guy]

spaceweather.com:

Solar wind
speed: 363.2 km/sec
density: 1.31 protons/cm3

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C3 0309 UT Aug27
24-hr: M1 0722 UT Aug26

Sunspot number: 193

 

[HBS Guy]

spaceweather.com:

Solar wind
speed: 385.8 km/sec
density: 3.75 protons/cm3

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C4 0440 UT Aug28
24-hr: C9 1250 UT Aug27

Sunspot number: 227

BIG SUNSPOT ALERT: In the sun's southern hemisphere, a large sunspot is turning toward Earth: movie. Sunspot 4197 is about 1/3rd the size of Carrington's sunspot. It looks even bigger though, because it is surrounded by a coterie of smaller spots. The crowd has a complex magnetic field that poses a threat for X-class solar flares.

 

[HBS Guy]

spaceweather.com:

Solar wind
speed: 391.2 km/sec
density: 1.47 protons/cm3

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M1 0416 UT Aug29
24-hr: M1 2040 UT Aug28

Sunspot number: 201

MONSTER SUNSPOTS: A phalanx of large sunspots is facing Earth. They're so large, photographers are catching them in the sunrise and sunset. (Caution: always use safe solar filters!) NOAA forecasters estimate a 65% chance of M-class solar flares and a 15% chance of X-flares solar flares during the next 24 hours.

 

[HBS Guy]

spaceweather.com:

Solar wind
speed: 386.1 km/sec
density: 2.39 protons/cm3

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C4 0211 UT Aug30
24-hr: C6 1244 UT Aug29

Sunspot number: 195

CHANCE OF X-FLARES TODAY: Giant sunspot 4197 has developed an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong explosions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% chance of M-class solar flares and a 25% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.

 

[HBS Guy]

spaceweather.com:

Solar wind
speed: 428.9 km/sec
density: 2.75 protons/cm3

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C4 0358 UT Aug31
24-hr: M2 2002 UT Aug30

Sunspot number: 183

CHANCE OF X-FLARES TODAY: Giant sunspot 4197 has developed an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong explosions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% chance of M-class solar flares and a 20% chance of X-flares on Aug. 31st. [Sep 1st here.]

 

[HBS Guy]

spaceweather.com:

Solar wind
speed: 423.0 km/sec
density: 2.98 protons/cm3

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C4 0325 UT Sep01
24-hr: C6 1826 UT Aug31

Sunspot number: 188

Only one M and no X flares from a promising looking spot, well not with the spot facing us, did on the opposite side of the sun.

 

[HBS Guy]

spaceweather.com:

Solar wind
speed: 609.5 km/sec
density: 20.40 protons/cm3

Solar wind
speed: 609.5 km/sec
density: 20.40 protons/cm3

Sunspot number: 165

 

[HBS Guy]

spaceweather.com:

Solar wind
speed: 477.0 km/sec
density: 0.88 protons/cm3

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C2 0542 UT Sep03
24-hr: C6 1451 UT Sep02

Sunspot number: 175

 

[HBS Guy]

spaceweather.com:

Solar wind
speed: 451.6 km/sec
density: 0.88 protons/cm3

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C9 0532 UT Sep04
24-hr: C9 0532 UT Sep04

Sunspot number: 128

 

[HBS Guy]

spaceweather.com:

Solar wind
speed: 416.8 km/sec
density: 1.91 protons/cm3

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C2 0254 UT Sep05
24-hr: M1 0116 UT Sep05

Sunspot number: 150

 

[HBS Guy]

spaceweather.com:

Solar wind
speed: 479.0 km/sec
density: 0.88 protons/cm3

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C3 0414 UT Sep06
24-hr: C3 0414 UT Sep06

Sunspot number: 128

SIGMOID ERUPTION ON THE SUN: When you see an "S" on the sun, it usually means something is about to explode. On Sept. 4th, NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded a textbook sigmoid eruption:

Researchers have long known that sigmoid structures in the sun's atmosphere herald strong explosions. Their magnetic field lines are twisted like a slinky. When enough tension builds up, they un-twist explosively.

This sigmoid hurled a dark plume of plasma more than 700,000 km long into space. The plume is dark because the plasma inside is relatively cool and dense--two qualities that can make potent CMEs.

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The explosion hurled a CME directly toward Earth. NOAA and NASA models agree that it will reach our planet on Sept. 7th. The impact could spark a G1 to G2-class geomagnetic storm with high-latitude auroras visible during the lunar eclipse.

 

[HBS Guy]

spaceweather.com:

Solar wind
speed: 529.9 km/sec
density: 0.05 protons/cm3

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C5 0525 UT Sep07
24-hr: M1 2215 UT Sep06

Sunspot number: 108

 

[HBS Guy]

spaceweather.com:

Solar wind
speed: 528.4 km/sec
density: 0.15 protons/cm3

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 0356 UT Sep08
24-hr: C4 1813 UT Sep07

Sunspot number: 83

 

[HBS Guy]

spaceweather.com:

Solar wind
speed: 473.8 km/sec
density: 1.58 protons/cm3

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 0323 UT Sep09
24-hr: C1 0323 UT Sep09

Sunspot number: 93

 

[HBS Guy]

spaceweather.com:

Solar wind
speed: 514.2 km/sec
density: 1.73 protons/cm3

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 0925 UT Sep10
24-hr: C1 1355 UT Sep09

Sunspot number: 99

SURPRISE GEOMAGNETIC STORM: This wasn't in the forecast. A G2-class geomagnetic storm broke out during the late hours of Sept. 9th. Why? It's the "Russell-McPherron effect." At this time of year, around the northern autumnal equinox, the sun's magnetic field can become connected to Earth's, sparking unpredictable geomagnetic storms. Happy Equinox

​

 

[HBS Guy]

spaceweather.com:

Solar wind
speed: 444.3 km/sec
density: 2.80 protons/cm3

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 0626 UT Sep11
24-hr: C1 0626 UT Sep11

Sunspot number: 94

A LARGE HOLE IN THE SUN'S ATMOSPHERE: A hole has opened in the sun's atmosphere, and it is spewing a stream of solar wind toward Earth. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed the 300,000-wide butterfly-shaped gap on Sept. 11th:

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This is a "coronal hole" -- a region in the sun's atmosphere where magnetic fields open up and allow solar wind to escape. Coronal holes look dark because hot plasma normally contained there is missing. It's on its way to us.

A stream of solar wind flowing from this coronal hole should reach Earth on Sept. 14th. Its arrival could spark G1 to G2-class geomagnetic storms. The odds of storming are increased by the "Russell-McPherron effect," which links the magnetic fields of the sun and Earth during weeks around equinoxes.