The Sun

[HBS Guy]

Continuing a thread started on OzPol in Critters and Gardens.
Keith Strong@drkstrong.10h

A BEATIFUL SLOW JET: Yesterday the Sun produced a stunning, slow jet off its NW limb. The huge structure slowly rises into the corona, stops, and starts to fall back to the Sun's surface. As it does so it seems to precipitate a second much smaller event at its base.

(more specific stats about midday.)

In the current Cycle, SC25, the sun is more active (more sunspots, more flares etc) and is brighter (emitting more insolation) than in the previous cycle, SC24.

To my surprise, on Twitter (and likely elsewhere) there are STILL idiots preaching “the” grand solar minimum and consequent minor ice age. I post to show the flaws in the reasoning, not to convince those talking of the GSM but hoping only to stop others starting to believe in the garbage (bet Booby still believes in it tho he fell out with conman Dubyne.)


spaceweather.com:

Solar wind
speed: 429.1 km/sec
density: 4.82 protons/cm3

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 2045 UT Feb26
24-hr: C3 0620 UT Feb26

114 sunspots visible

 

[HBS Guy]

spaceweather.com 0607 28 Feb 2024

BIG SUNSPOT GETS EVEN BIGGER:

Giant sunspot AR3590 spent the weekend getting bigger. This two-day movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows its area increasing by a quarter in only 48 hours:

AR3590 is now the largest sunspot of Solar Cycle 25. For comparison, it is now 60% as large (by surface area) as the great sunspot that caused the Carrington Event in Sept. 1859. Even a 60%-intensity Carrington Event occuring today could cause problems for satellites, power grids, and internet connectivity. That's why forecasters are carefully watching this sunspot.

Last week, AR3590 unleashed three X-flares in rapid succession, including the strongest flare of the current solar cycle (X6.3) . Since then the sunspot has been relatively quiet, producing only a handful of low-level M-class explosions. Is it gathering itself for another X-flare? If so, the flare will be geoeffective as AR3590 is almost directly facing Earth.

Solar wind
speed: 449.0 km/sec
density: 5.56 protons/cm3
Updated: Today at 0932 UT

X-ray Solar Flares

6-hr max: M1 1854 UT Feb28
24-hr: M1 1854 UT Feb28

103 Sunspots

 

[HBS Guy]

29 Feb 2024 0610

Keith Strong@drkstrong.15H

SPOTLESS DAYS: Comparing solar cycle 25 with the previous 4 cycles. SC25 has about 25% fewer spotless days so far compared to SC24 but is much higher than SC23, SC222, and SC21. This implies that SC25 peak will be greater than SC24 (already happened) but less than the other 3

 

[HBS Guy]

Found a useful Twitter thread:

NASA Sun

 

[HBS Guy]

NASA blog about the international space station and discoverie made there:

https://www.nasa.gov/missions/stati...g-results-from-space-station-science-in-2023/

 

[HBS Guy]

Keith Strong@drkstrong 6h
https://twitter.com/drkstrong

THE 16-HOUR M FLARE: For a relatively modest flare (M1.5), this event was atypical. It produced a spectacular CME (see earlier post) from a region that had not produced one even for the X flares. It then went on for about 16 hours making it one of the longer Long Duration events.

22h

M FLARE! After a rest bite of 3 days without an M flare, AR3590 produced a long duration event that peaked at 18:50 UT at an intensity an M1.5. So far it has been going on for about 5 hrs which means it likely launched a CME and is in a perfect place (NW) for it to affect Earth.

spaceweather.com

Solar wind

speed: 378.5 km/sec
density: 3.01 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0726 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C2 1658 UT Feb29
24-hr: M1 1930 UT Feb28

127 sunspots

 

[HBS Guy]

Keith Strong@drkstrong

1h

BEST VIEW OF THE SUN'S SOUTHERN POLE: The Sun's spin axis is tilted away from the Earth by -7.2 degrees. That exposes the southern solar pole to our view. You can see the dark ring around the pole - polar crown filament. That should disappear at solar max so we are not there yet.

7h

NEW SPOTS COMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIMB: Yet more sunspots are appearing on the Sunas we lose the huge sunspot group, AR3590, over the northwest limb. This new region is possibly the return of AR3589. As such, it is likely to be a mature region with less big flare potential.

 

[HBS Guy]

So what us the meaning of spots:

Solar cycle predictions are used by various agencies and many industry groups. The solar cycle is important for determining the lifetime of satellites in low-Earth orbit, as the drag on the satellites correlates with the solar cycle, especially as represented by F10.7cm. A higher solar maximum decreases satellite life and a lower solar maximum extends satellite life. Also, the prediction gives a rough idea of the frequency of space weather storms of all types, from radio blackouts to geomagnetic storms to radiation storms, so is used by many industries to gauge the expected impact of space weather in the coming years.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

 

[HBS Guy]

Keith Strong@drkstrong

9h

SUNSPOT AREA ON THE RISE: The total area of visible sunspots expressed in millionths of the total surface area of the Sun has reached it 3rd highest peak since the beginning of SC25 after a long dip. The beginning of the next peak in solar activity?

The maximum of the current cycle is expected to be later this year.

spaceweather.com

Solar wind
speed: 279.6 km/sec
density: 1.58 protons/cm3
Updated: Today at 0911 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 1537 UT Mar02
24-hr: C6 1258 UT Mar02

120 spots

 

[HBS Guy]

Keith Strong@drkstrong·15m
https://twitter.com/drkstrong
FEBRUARY 2024 SUSNSPOT NUMBERS 5% LOWER ON AVERAGE THAN JANUARY. Where the blue curve is above the orange indicates decay; where orange beats blue shows growth; and where statistically the same - stability. Does this indicate that the latest burst of activity is coming to an end?

4h

SUNSPOT NUMBERS REMAIN HIGH IN 2024. The smoothed sunspot number (the quantity used to determine the dates of solar minimum & maximum) remained at a high level for the last few months (average 124.4). The question is will it go up further to a new maximum or start to drop slowly?

Solar wind
speed: 346.6 km/sec
density: 19.51 protons/cm3
Updated: Today at 0838 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C3 1728 UT Mar03
24-hr: C3 1728 UT Mar03

91 sunspots

 

[HBS Guy]

Keith Strong@drkstrong 17h

SOLAR ACTIVITY SUMMARY - 2024.03.03: Seven numbered sunspot regions on the disk, one newly emerged (AR3601) in the NW. SSN 105; area 530 mil. Seven C flares, the largest a C3 from AR3590 from 2 days behind the NW limb! Five CMEs (see previous tweet) Plus, a G2 geomagnetic storm.

That C3 as detected from Earth is in reality a much bigger flare.

Spaceweather.com:

Solar wind
speed: 410.1 km/sec
density: 0.05 protons/cm3
Updated: Today at 0911 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 1515 UT Mar04
24-hr: C2 0316 UT Mar04

90 sunspots

 

[HBS Guy]

Keith Strong@drkstrong 5h

SOLAR ACTIVITY LOG - 2024.03.04: 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk, 2 new ones emerging in the NE. SSN 110 (up); Areas 480 mil (down) 7 C flares the largest of which were two C2 compact, impulsive flares (see video) 10 CMEs Today Kp index was 4. The solar wind at 400 km/s

 

[HBS Guy]

spaceweather.com:

Solar wind
speed: 413.4 km/sec
density: 1.61 protons/cm3

6-hr max: B8 0401 UT Mar06
24-hr: C2 1125 UT Mar05

121 sunspots

 

[HBS Guy]

Solar wind
speed: 366.2 km/sec
density: 4.08 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1146 UT

6-hr max: B7 2214 UT Mar06
24-hr: C1 2351 UT Mar05

121 sunspots

 

[HBS Guy]

Solar wind
speed: 429.4 km/sec
density: 4.00 protons/cm3

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C2 1651 UT Mar07
24-hr: C8 0618 UT Mar07

105 sunspots

 

[HBS Guy]

Keith Strong@drkstrong 2H
https://twitter.com/drkstrong
SOLAR ACTIVITY - 2024.03.07:

* 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk

* 12 C, no M, and no X flares today. Largest a C8 peaking at 06:18 UT from AR3592. Long-duration event off the SE limb lasting about 5 hours. Probably produced a CME.

* 5 CMEs

*No geomagnetic storms

 

[HBS Guy]

Sat 9 Mar

Spaceweather.com:

Solar wind
speed: 491.7 km/sec
density: 2.59 protons/cm3
Updated: Today at 1011 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M1 2126 UT Mar08
24-hr: M1 2126 UT Mar08

99 sunspots

 

[HBS Guy]

spaceweather.com:

Solar wind
speed: 391.7 km/sec
density: 2.33 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 2335 UT Mar10
24-hr: M7 1213 UT Mar10

99 sunspots

 

[HBS Guy]

spaceweather.com

Solar wind speed: 430.1 km/sec density: 6.40 protons/cm3 more data: ACE, DSCOVR Updated: Today at 1246 UT X-ray Solar Flares 6-hr max: C3 1135 UT Mar12 24-hr: C3 1135 UT Mar12​ 55 sunspots

 

[HBS Guy]

spaceweather.com:

Solar wind
speed: 430.3 km/sec
density: 3.13 protons/cm3

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C9 0604 UT Mar14
24-hr: C9 0604 UT Mar14

86 sunspots