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There is an increased risk of bushfires.
Higher temperatures, lower prospect of rainfall.
There is a lot of red coloring in the maps in the BOM forecast.
Some of the images in the text below have been deleted to comply with website posting protocol limiting number of images.
The full report can be viewed in this link.
Higher temperatures, lower prospect of rainfall.
There is a lot of red coloring in the maps in the BOM forecast.
Some of the images in the text below have been deleted to comply with website posting protocol limiting number of images.
The full report can be viewed in this link.
Rainfall and temperature long-range forecasts
The next 4 weeks
Issued 1 December 2025 Updated Mondays and Thursdays
Rainfall maps – Totals that have a 50% chance of occurringMORE MAPS
6 Dec – 12 Dec
13 Dec – 19 Dec
6 Dec – 19 Dec
13 Dec – 26 Dec
Maximum temperature maps – AnomaliesMORE MAPS
6 Dec – 12 Dec
13 Dec – 19 Dec
6 Dec – 19 Dec
13 Dec – 26 Dec
Minimum temperature maps – AnomaliesMORE MAPS
6 Dec – 12 Dec
13 Dec – 19 Dec
6 Dec – 19 Dec13 Dec – 26 Dec
Climate outlook for December to March
Issued 27 November 2025
Long-range forecast overview
The long-range forecast for December to February shows:
Rainfall—Summary
- Rainfall is likely to be below average for parts of the west and inland parts of the east; the forecast signal is weak along the east coast and across the south, meaning roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
- Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average across most of Australia.
- Overnight temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia.
Rainfall is likely to be below average for parts of the west and inland parts of the east; no clear signal in the east coast and south
December to February
Rainfall maps (toggle-select to enlarge)MORE MAPS
- For much of the east coast of Australia, and across the southern states, there is no clear signal in the rainfall forecast, meaning roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall, over the three months to February.
- Rainfall is likely to be below average (60 to 80% chance) for parts of the western half of the mainland and inland parts of the east, with the highest chances of below average rainfall in the north-west of Australia.
- Chances of above average rainfall have generally decreased over recent forecasts, with a dry signal now more pronounced for the month of December.
DecemberJauryDecember to February
January to March
Temperature—Summary
Warmer than average days and nights likely across most of Australia
December to February
1Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of December to February days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.
- Maximum temperatures are likely to be above average (60% to over 80% chance) across most of Australia.
- Some areas have an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures1 (over 50% chance) including much of the north-west of Australia, large parts of Queensland and much of the south-east including Tasmania.
- Minimum temperatures are very likely to be above average (over 80% chance) across much of Australia.
- There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures1 (over 50% chance) across much of northern Australia and parts of southern Australia, with the strongest chances in the tropical north (over 80% chance).
Maximum temperature maps (toggle-select to enlarge)MORE MAPS
December
January
December to February
January to March
Minimum temperature maps (toggle-select to enlarge)MORE MAPS
DecemberJanuaryDecember to February
January to March
We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.
We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.
Current climate indicators:
- Since July 2024, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Australian region have been the warmest or second warmest on record for each respective month. Similarly, global SSTs remain substantially above average, with October 2025 the third warmest on record.
- SSTs for the week ending 23 November 2025 were warmer than average to the west and north-east of Australia, particularly in the Coral Sea. SSTs were cooler than average to the south-east of Australia.
- Forecasts for December to February show warmer-than-average SSTs are likely around most of Australia, especially to the east. Warmer oceans can provide increased moisture and energy, that can enhance the severity of storms, cyclones and rain systems.
- La Niña is underway. Observations in the tropical Pacific Ocean have been consistent with La Niña conditions since early October.
- The Bureau's model currently predicts that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain at La Niña levels until early 2026 before returning to neutral. This timing aligns with most international models assessed.
- The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event remains active but has been weakening steadily over the past three weeks. The Bureau's model predicts a return to a neutral IOD in December, which is consistent with most international models.
20 °C