AGW effects intensifying in magnitude and frequency: Dozens dead in massive flooding in Brazil

[Squire]

The floods in Brazil are the worst on record.

This follows recent record floods in Kenya, Russia, Kazakhstan, Indonesia, USA, and many other countries.

https://www.rt.com/news/597006-dozens-dead-massive-flooding-brazil/

Dozens dead in massive flooding in Brazil
Regional authorities have described the situation in the south of the country as “absolutely unprecedented”

An aerial view of flooded streets of Porto Alegre, Brazil, is seen on May 4, 2024. © AFP / Carlos Fabal
The southernmost Brazilian state of Rio Grande del Sul has been hit with what its authorities have described as the worst flooding in its history. The regional capital of Porto Alegre has been engulfed by heavy torrents, with the city mayor warning that the situation could get even worse.
The total death toll linked to the disaster has climbed to between 56 and 58, according to various media reports, citing the Brazilian civil defense authority. The raging floodwaters have also left more than 70 people injured, with another 67 still missing, the agency said.
The collapse of a hydroelectric dam near the city of Bento Goncalves, coupled with landslides in the area, killed 30 people, the media said. According to some reports, a second dam could possibly collapse in the area as well.
Videos published on social media showed the city completely submerged under water, with its streets turning into rivers that can only be traversed by boat. One clip, supposedly dated May 2, showed powerful torrential streams raging through the streets and roads, dragging debris, trees and even vehicles with them. At least one motorcyclist could be seen dragged away by the floods.

The catastrophe has displaced more than 24,000 people and inflicted property damage on some 350,000, according to authorities. The flood levels have surpassed those of the devastating 1941 deluge, according to the Brazilian Geological Service. Some cities recorded the highest water levels in the history of such observations, which began some 150 years ago, the agency said.

Rio Grande del Sul Governor Eduardo Leite called the situation “absolutely unprecedented” and the worst in his state’s history. “Forget everything you’ve seen, it’s going to be much worse in the metropolitan region,” he said on Friday, when the streets of Porto Alegre had already been submerged by the fast rise of the local Guaiba River. The city is home to some 1.5 million residents.

The city mayor, Sebastiao Malo, urged local residents to evacuate, adding that the waters had started to rise in another local river, the Gravatai. According to media reports, roads in the area were destroyed and bridges were swept away by the powerful currents.

READ MORE: Kenya floods death toll climbs (VIDEO)
Some smaller towns in Rio Grande del Sul were reportedly left completely inaccessible and suffered from a lack of electricity and drinking water. At least 300 municipalities have been affected by the disaster since Monday, according to the media.
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva visited the region on Thursday, vowing a robust response to the disaster.

 

[Squire]

The frequency and intensity of tornadoes in the USA is increasing.

https://www.axios.com/2024/05/05/severe-storms-weather-tornado-oklahoma-kansas

40 million at risk of severe storms, "intense" tornadoes possible Monday

Andrew Freedman, author ofAxios Generate

Map showing severe weather risk levels on May 6. The red depicts "moderate risk," which is the second-highest level. Photo: Pivotal Weather.

A significant severe storm outbreak is forecast for the Plains, Central U.S. and Ohio River Valley during the Monday to Wednesday time frame.
Threat level: Storms could spawn "intense tornadoes," the National Weather Service warns, along with high winds, large, damaging hail and flooding.

• The greatest risk will come Monday, when cooler, drier air from the west clashes with a fast-moving flow of warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico and spreading across much of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska.
• The presence of strong winds will help trigger severe thunderstorms and give them the energy needed to become supercells, which are thunderstorms that contain persistent, rotating updrafts.
• It is these storms that can produce large, damaging hail, high straight-line winds, and strong tornadoes.

Context: The upcoming outbreak follows a busy April, during which more than 300 tornadoes were reported across the country.

• The Storm Prediction Center, which is responsible for issuing tornado watches across the U.S. has taken the rare step of issuing a "moderate risk" outlook for central Oklahoma on Monday, which is a level 4 out of 5 on its danger scale.
• This region includes Oklahoma City and Norman, Okla., and Wichita, KS. A broader area of "Enhanced risk," which is a level 3/5, includes Tulsa and Topeka, Okla., Lawrence KS, and Lincoln NE.
• At least 40 million people are in a "slight risk" or greater threat level for severe weather during the Monday to Wednesday period, according to the SPC.

What they're saying: "Multiple strong/potentially long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely" on Monday, the SPC stated in an online forecast discussion.

• Forecasters noted that "confidence has increased" in this danger being maximized in parts of Kansas and Oklahoma.

The big picture: The outbreak is tied to a deep dip in the jet stream and a cold pool of air aloft dipping down across the Southwest, and swinging east-northeast across the Plains.

• A surface low pressure area is forecast to form over the northern High Plains on Monday, which will help intensify winds above the surface and bring warm, humid air further to the north.
• The severe weather threat is expected to move east for Tuesday, with cities including Indianapolis, Columbus, Memphis, Nashville and Cincinnati all at risk for storms.

The intrigue: The topic of how climate change is affecting tornadoes is one of active research in the scientific community, though there is emerging agreement around a few points.

• Climate change is affecting the atmospheric conditions that give rise to severe thunderstorms, in particular by increasing atmospheric instability.
• As global air and ocean temperatures increase, the atmosphere can carry more water vapor, which is a key ingredient for giving rise to severe storms.
• At the same time, though, wind shear, which is also important for tornado formation, may be decreasing over time.

Between the lines: Some studies show that a warming climate can therefore make tornado outbreaks more prolific when instability and shear overlap, but potentially less frequent due to the increasingly rare combo.

• However, this is not yet agreed to by most of the tornado research community, especially since twisters are small-scale events, making them hard to simulate in computer models.

The bottom line: After enduring severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes, last week, this forecast is not a welcome sight for residents of Kansas and Oklahoma especially.

• But as the NWS is urging, people need to be prepared to implement their storm safety plans for this event too.

 

[Squire]

Canada is on fire ... again.

2023 was a record year for the number of fires in Canada.

https://apnews.com/article/canada-w...-fort-nelson-eaea05912fe506736550fd6c38acb54b

Wildfire in Canada’s British Columbia forces thousands to evacuate. Winds push smoke into Alberta

Updated 5:44 PM GMT+7, May 12, 2024

VANCOUVER, British Columbia (AP) — Canadian authorities are urging all remaining residents in a town in British Columbia to leave immediately, despite improving weather conditions, after many were already evacuated due to a fast-growing wildfire.
The blaze, which started Friday, almost doubled in size the following day, reaching about 17 square kilometers (4,200 acres). BC Wildfire Service maps showed the fire burning just a few kilometers (miles) west of Fort Nelson’s city limits.
Fort Nelson is located in the far northeastern corner of British Columbia, about 1,600 kilometers (995 miles) from Vancouver. Fort Nelson and the Fort Nelson Indian Reserve have a combined population of about 3,000.
In 2023, Canada witnessed a record number of wildfires that also caused choking smoke in parts of the U.S. and forced tens of thousands of people to evacuate across British Columbia.
ADVERTISEMENT

Authorities in Alberta also issued an alert about a wildfire nearly 25 kilometers (15.5 miles) southwest of the oil sands city of Fort McMurray that could impact visibility on highways in some areas. No evacuation order has been given so far for the major Canadian oil city.
In 2016, more than 80,000 people evacuated from Fort McMurray, in the heart of Canada’s oil sands, as a fire torched 1,600 homes and other buildings. ...